Abstract: Objective To analyze the factors related to the shortages of drugs in Liaoning Province in order to implement effective early warning of drug shortages. Methods The factors that led to the shortages of drugs were discussed in depth and a model for drug shortage early warning in Liaoning Province was established through the description and analysis of the possible causes of shortages of drugs in Liaoning Province between January and June 2018. Results Drug shortages were closely related to the drug supply chain, drugs themselves, and policies and regulations. Conclusion A model for prediction of drug shortages can effectively predict the possible shortages of drugs so as to prevent these shortages as early as possible.

Key words: drug shortage, influencing factors, warning analysis